Forecasting: Future of Forecasting

[OAGr]

We could really use at least one large question set on what the future of forecasting will look like. Some ideas:

1. How popular will [judgemental forecasting] be in [5,10,20,50] years?
2. How important will [monetary prediction markets], [prediction tournaments] be?
3. How important will [public prediction markets+tournaments] vs [organization internal prediction markets+tournaments]?
4. What domains will have them be the most useful?
5. How much of a bottleneck/win will the following represent?

• Long-term forecasting
• Prediction functions, like Squiggle
• Large-scale evaluations
• Mostly-automated systems

6. How significant are the downsides of forecasting? (Like, AGI companies using it for acceleration)

[uvafan]

Same thought here as #15