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  year = {2002},
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}

@article{Cunningham2006,
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  volume = {50},
  copyright = {Copyright \textcopyright{} 2006 Midwest Political Science Association},
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@article{Hartzell2003,
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@article{Hartzell1999,
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}

@article{Hartzell2001,
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  copyright = {Copyright \textcopyright{} 2001 The MIT Press},
  shorttitle = {Stabilizing the {{Peace}} after {{Civil War}}},
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}

@article{Themner2014,
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  language = {en},
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}

@article{Fortna2003,
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  copyright = {Copyright \textcopyright{} 2003 International Organization Foundation},
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@article{DeRouen2011,
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@article{Dreher2009,
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  year = {2009},
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@article{Alesina2000,
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@article{Morgan2014a,
  title = {Threat and Imposition of Economic Sanctions 1945\textendash{}2005: {{Updating}} the {{TIES}} Dataset},
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  language = {en},
  number = {5},
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  month = nov,
  year = {2014},
  keywords = {dataset,economic coercion,economic sanctions,threats},
  pages = {541-558}
}

@article{Gleditsch2002,
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  number = {5},
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  pages = {615-637}
}

@article{Harbom2006,
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  language = {en},
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}

@article{Beardsley2008,
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  volume = {52},
  copyright = {\textcopyright{}2008, Midwest Political Science Association},
  shorttitle = {Agreement without {{Peace}}?},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
  author = {Beardsley, Kyle},
  month = oct,
  year = {2008},
  pages = {723-740}
}

@article{Werner2005,
  title = {Making and {{Keeping Peace}}},
  volume = {59},
  number = {2},
  journal = {International Organization},
  author = {Werner, Suzanne and Yuen, Amy},
  year = {2005},
  keywords = {International relations,Peace,WAR (International law),INTERNATIONAL mediation,INTERNATIONAL arbitration,ARMISTICES},
  pages = {261-292}
}

@book{Kugler2012,
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@book{Arbetman1997,
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}

@techreport{WorldBank2018,
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  title = {World {{Development Indicators}} 2018},
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@article{Anna2015,
  title = {U.{{S}}. {{Pursues New UN Sanctions}} on {{South Sudan}} as {{Deal Unsigned}}},
  journal = {The Orange County Register},
  author = {Anna, Cara},
  month = aug,
  year = {2015}
}

@article{Beardsley2006,
  title = {Mediation {{Style}} and {{Crisis Outcomes}}},
  volume = {50},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  author = {Beardsley, Kyle C. and Quinn, David M. and Biswas, Bidisha and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan},
  month = jan,
  year = {2006},
  keywords = {mediation,conflict,Conflict resolution,INTERNATIONAL conflict,crisis,ICB,rational bargaining},
  pages = {58-86}
}

@article{Svensson2009,
  title = {Who {{Brings Which Peace}}? {{Neutral}} versus {{Biased Mediation}} and {{Institutional Peace Arrangements}} in {{Civil Wars}}},
  volume = {53},
  shorttitle = {Who {{Brings Which Peace}}?},
  language = {en},
  number = {3},
  journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  author = {Svensson, Isak},
  month = jan,
  year = {2009},
  keywords = {mediation,civil wars,power sharing,peace agreements,partiality,justice,third-party security guarantees},
  pages = {446-469}
}

@article{Bohmelt2012,
  title = {Why Many Cooks If They Can Spoil the Broth? {{The}} Determinants of Multiparty Mediation},
  volume = {49},
  shorttitle = {Why Many Cooks If They Can Spoil the Broth?},
  language = {en},
  number = {5},
  journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
  author = {B\"ohmelt, Tobias},
  month = sep,
  year = {2012},
  keywords = {INTERNATIONAL mediation,demand-side influences,multiparty mediation,supply-side incentives},
  pages = {701-715}
}

@techreport{Marshall2014,
  type = {Codebook},
  title = {{{POLITY IV PROJECT}}: {{Dataset Users}}' {{Manual}}},
  institution = {{Center for Systemic Peace}},
  author = {Marshall, Monty G. and Gurr, Ted Robert and Jaggers, Keith},
  month = jun,
  year = {2014}
}

@article{Greig2005,
  title = {Stepping {{Into}} the {{Fray}}: {{When Do Mediators Mediate}}?},
  volume = {49},
  shorttitle = {Stepping {{Into}} the {{Fray}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
  author = {Greig, J. Michael},
  month = apr,
  year = {2005},
  pages = {249-266}
}

@article{Morgan2009,
  title = {The {{Threat}} and {{Imposition}} of {{Economic Sanctions}}, 1971\textemdash{}2000*},
  volume = {26},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
  author = {Morgan, T. Clifton and Bapat, Navin and Krustev, Valentin},
  month = jan,
  year = {2009},
  keywords = {dataset,economic coercion,economic sanctions,threats},
  pages = {92-110}
}

@article{Gelman1992,
  title = {Inference from {{Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences}}},
  volume = {7},
  language = {EN},
  number = {4},
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  author = {Gelman, Andrew and Rubin, Donald B.},
  month = nov,
  year = {1992},
  keywords = {Bayesian inference,Multiple imputation,Importance sampling,convergence of stochastic processes,EM,ECM,Gibbs sampler,Metropolis algorithm,random-effects model,SIR},
  pages = {457-472}
}

@article{Gartner2006,
  title = {Overcoming {{Obstacles}} to {{Peace}}: {{The Contribution}} of {{Mediation}} to {{Short}}-{{Lived Conflict Settlements}}},
  volume = {50},
  copyright = {\textcopyright{} 2006 International Studies Association},
  shorttitle = {Overcoming {{Obstacles}} to {{Peace}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
  author = {Gartner, Scott Sigmund and Bercovitch, Jacob},
  month = dec,
  year = {2006},
  pages = {819-840}
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@article{Bakker2016,
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  volume = {53},
  shorttitle = {How Much Terror?},
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  number = {5},
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  author = {Bakker, Ryan and Hill, Daniel W and Moore, Will H},
  month = sep,
  year = {2016},
  pages = {711-726}
}

@article{Badran2014,
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  language = {en},
  number = {2},
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  author = {Badran, Ramzi},
  month = apr,
  year = {2014},
  pages = {193-217}
}

@article{Bafumi2005,
  title = {Practical {{Issues}} in {{Implementing}} and {{Understanding Bayesian Ideal Point Estimation}}},
  volume = {13},
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@article{Treier2008,
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  title = {Trends in {{Civil War Mediation}}},
  isbn = {978-1-61205-089-8 978-1-61205-090-4},
  language = {English},
  booktitle = {Peace and Conflict 2012},
  publisher = {{Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland ; Paradigm Publishers ; Folke Bernadotte Academy}},
  author = {DeRouen, Karl and Bercovitch, Jacob},
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  year = {2012}
}

@book{Rasch1980,
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@article{Fariss2014,
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@article{Bearce2010,
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@article{Nichols2015,
  title = {U.{{S}}. Proposes {{United Nations}} Arms Embargo on {{South Sudan}}},
  journal = {Reuters},
  author = {Nichols, Michelle},
  month = aug,
  year = {2015},
  keywords = {United States,Africa,United Nations,China,Russia,Europe,South Sudan,Sudan,Conflicts / War / Peace,International / National Security,Military Conflicts,Diplomacy / Foreign Policy,Emerging Market Countries,Government / Politics,Civil Unrest,Overseas Development Aid,US,Insurgencies,Western Europe,Defense,Salva Kiir,Major News,Ban Ki,moon,Herve Ladsous,John Kerry,Liu Jieyi,Riek Machar,SOUTHSUDAN,UNREST,UN,Human Rights / Civil Rights,Military Procurement,Asylum / Immigration / Refugees,Economic Events,Refined Products,US Government News}
}

@article{Dumo2015,
  title = {South {{Sudan}} President Signs Peace Deal despite Concerns},
  journal = {Reuters},
  author = {Dumo, Denis},
  month = aug,
  year = {2015},
  keywords = {United States,Africa,United Nations,Europe,South Sudan,Sudan,Ethiopia,Conflicts / War / Peace,International / National Security,Military Conflicts,Diplomacy / Foreign Policy,Emerging Market Countries,Civil Unrest,Overseas Development Aid,US,Insurgencies,Barack Obama,Salva Kiir,Major News,Oil and Gas (TRBC),Ban Ki,moon,Riek Machar,SOUTHSUDAN,UNREST,Asylum / Immigration / Refugees,Economic Events,Kenya,Uganda,Hailemariam Desalegn,John Kirby,Susan Rice,Uhuru Kenyatta,Yoweri Museveni,PRESIDENT,Energy Markets,Energy (Legacy),Picture available,Video,Pictures,Corporate Events}
}

@article{Pickering2009,
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  volume = {46},
  shorttitle = {The {{International Military Intervention Dataset}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
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  year = {2009},
  pages = {589-599}
}

@article{Smith2018,
  title = {Introducing {$\nu$}-{{CLEAR}}: A Latent Variable Approach to Measuring Nuclear Proficiency},
  shorttitle = {Introducing {$\nu$}-{{CLEAR}}},
  language = {en},
  journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
  author = {Smith, Bradley C. and Spaniel, William},
  month = jan,
  year = {2018},
  pages = {0738894217741619}
}

@article{Gray2012,
  title = {How Effective Are Preferential Trade Agreements? {{Ask}} the Experts},
  volume = {7},
  shorttitle = {How Effective Are Preferential Trade Agreements?},
  language = {en},
  number = {3},
  journal = {The Review of International Organizations},
  author = {Gray, Julia and Slapin, Jonathan B.},
  month = sep,
  year = {2012},
  pages = {309-333}
}

@article{Pemstein2010,
  title = {Democratic {{Compromise}}: {{A Latent Variable Analysis}} of {{Ten Measures}} of {{Regime Type}}},
  volume = {18},
  shorttitle = {Democratic {{Compromise}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  journal = {Political Analysis},
  author = {Pemstein, Daniel and Meserve, Stephen A. and Melton, James},
  year = {2010},
  pages = {426-449}
}

@incollection{Touval1985,
  address = {Boulder, CO},
  title = {Introduction: {{Mediation}} in {{Theory}}},
  isbn = {978-0-8133-7008-8},
  language = {English},
  booktitle = {International Mediation in Theory and Practice},
  publisher = {{Westview Press}},
  author = {Touval, Saadia and Zartman, I. William},
  editor = {Touval, Saadia and Zartman, I. William},
  year = {1985}
}

@article{Dur2014,
  title = {The Design of International Trade Agreements: {{Introducing}} a New Dataset},
  volume = {9},
  shorttitle = {The Design of International Trade Agreements},
  language = {en},
  number = {3},
  journal = {The Review of International Organizations},
  author = {D\"ur, Andreas and Baccini, Leonardo and Elsig, Manfred},
  month = sep,
  year = {2014},
  pages = {353-375}
}

@article{Reid2017,
  title = {Finding a {{Peace}} That {{Lasts}}: {{Mediator Leverage}} and the {{Durable Resolution}} of {{Civil Wars}}},
  volume = {61},
  shorttitle = {Finding a {{Peace}} That {{Lasts}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {7},
  journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  author = {Reid, Lindsay},
  month = aug,
  year = {2017},
  pages = {1401-1431}
}

@article{Joshi2015,
  title = {Annualized Implementation Data on Comprehensive Intrastate Peace Accords, 1989\textendash{}2012},
  volume = {52},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
  author = {Joshi, Madhav and Quinn, Jason Michael and Regan, Patrick M},
  month = jul,
  year = {2015},
  pages = {551-562}
}

@article{Joshi2013,
  title = {Introducing the {{Peace Accords Matrix}} ({{PAM}}): A Database of Comprehensive Peace Agreements and Their Implementation, 1989\textendash{}2007},
  volume = {1},
  shorttitle = {Introducing the {{Peace Accords Matrix}} ({{PAM}})},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Peacebuilding},
  author = {Joshi, Madhav and Darby, John},
  month = jun,
  year = {2013},
  pages = {256-274}
}

@article{CarrollForthcoming,
  title = {Prediction, {{Proxies}}, and {{Power}}},
  journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
  author = {Carroll, Robert and Kenkel, Brenton},
  year = {\textbackslash{}noop\{3001\}Forthcoming}
}

@article{Schnakenberg2014,
  title = {Dynamic {{Patterns}} of {{Human Rights Practices}}},
  volume = {2},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
  author = {Schnakenberg, Keith E. and Fariss, Christopher J.},
  month = apr,
  year = {2014},
  pages = {1-31}
}

@article{Gartner2011,
  title = {Signs of {{Trouble}}: {{Regional Organization Mediation}} and {{Civil War Agreement Durability}}},
  volume = {73},
  shorttitle = {Signs of {{Trouble}}},
  number = {2},
  journal = {The Journal of Politics},
  author = {Gartner, Scott Sigmund},
  month = apr,
  year = {2011},
  pages = {380-390}
}

@article{Olson2002,
  title = {Civil War Characteristics, Mediators, and Resolution},
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  copyright = {Copyright \textcopyright{} 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company},
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  month = jun,
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@article{Wehr1991,
  title = {Mediating {{Conflict}} in {{Central America}}},
  volume = {28},
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@article{Kadera1998,
  title = {Transmission, {{Barriers}}, and {{Constraints}}: {{A Dynamic Model}} of the {{Spread}} of {{War}}},
  volume = {42},
  shorttitle = {Transmission, {{Barriers}}, and {{Constraints}}},
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  number = {3},
  journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
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